WiP - Paolo Santorio / Guesses and predictions
WiP - Paolo Santorio / Guesses and predictions
Wednesday April 17 at 1:00, Paolo Santorio discusses his recent work on norms governing the speech acts of guessing and prediction, abstracted below.
We routinely make predictions about future events, and at least some of these predictions seem to be genuine assertions. But it's unclear how predictions can satisfy basic epistemic norms on assertion. I explore a few candidate norms regulating predictions. One option is that making a prediction is like making a guess, and that the norms of prediction are just the epistemic norms that constrain guessing (as suggested by Dorst and Mandelkern 2022). Contrary to this view, I argue that guesses and predictions differ in key respects. Guessing that p is choosing p among a number of salient alternative options. Predicting that p is only permissible when there are no salient non-p options in view.